Los Angeles — As Republicans fight to protect their fragile majority in a bitterly divided nation, a series of close U.S. House battles in heavily Democratic California might again determine chamber control.
California has gone Democratic so much that a GOP presidential contender hasn't won a general election since the 1980s. Democrats control every state office and the Legislature, and Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters 2-to-1.
Conservatives are strong in Southern California suburbia and the Central Valley agriculture belt. As in 2022, Republican-held districts that Joe Biden won in 2020 are the most competitive. Nationally competitive territory is shrinking.
Both party leaders believe that California's conclusion might determine who wins the 2025 election after GOP victory in 2022 helped the party take power. The House has 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacancies.
Gavin Newsom is soliciting money to recapture the House for Democrats. He predicts a “disastrous future” if former President Donald Trump wins and Republicans take over the Senate. Newsom cautions that Democrats need the House to reject Trump's plans. In a recent fundraising pitch, Newsom said “we’re going to flip the House in November” if Democrats win four GOP-held seats. “And each has a good chance.
Republicans have only 11 of the state's 52 House seats due to its Democratic tilt. Approximately 10 districts are in play statewide, and the primary election may result in two-year rematches. No incumbents look in danger. County ballots must be mailed by Monday to begin voting.
In the growing fight, fear of the adversary drives purchases. Democrats fear Trump's return, abortion rights violations, and gun violence. Republican leaders blame the state party for high taxes, inflation, violence, and the homeless situation.
How much the presidential election will affect House contests is uncertain. If President Joe Biden and Trump are certain nominations, turnout may drop. Biden's popularity has declined in California and nationwide, while Trump is hated outside his base. Regardless of party, California primary ballots include Democrats and Republicans, and the two candidates with the highest votes advance to the final election.
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